Report on Future Perspectives and on Opportunities and Risks

Future Perspectives

Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook1

 

 

Growth 2017

 

Growth forecast 2018

2017 figures restated

1

Real growth of gross domestic product, source: IHS Markit

2

Including about 50 countries defined by IHS Markit as Emerging Markets in line with the World Bank

As of April 2018

World

 

+3.3%

 

+3.4%

European Union

 

+2.5%

 

+2.3%

of which Germany

 

+2.5%

 

+2.6%

United States

 

+2.3%

 

+2.7%

Emerging Markets2

 

+4.8%

 

+4.9%

The global economy should continue to grow in 2018. Although the risks for the world economy have increased in view of growing political tensions, the recent tax cuts in the United States should stimulate growth, and we also anticipate robust growth in Europe in 2018. As for the Emerging Markets, we expect growth in economic output to match the pace of the prior year, while for China, we anticipate continuing strong growth at a slightly slower rate.

Economic Outlook for the Segments1

 

 

Growth 2017

 

Growth forecast 2018

2017 figures restated

1

Bayer’s estimate, except pharmaceuticals. Source for pharmaceuticals market: IQVIA Market Prognosis (March 2018); all rights reserved; currency-adjusted

As of March 2018

Pharmaceuticals market

 

+3%

 

+4%

Consumer health market

 

+3–4%

 

+3–4%

Seed and crop protection market

 

+1%

 

+3%

Animal health market

 

+2%

 

+4%

Corporate Outlook

Based on the business development described in this report and taking into account the potential risks and opportunities, we confirm the currency-adjusted forecasts published in February for operating performance (see Annual Report 2017, Chapter “Corporate Outlook”). We continue to expect 2018 sales to increase by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. As before, we aim to increase EBITDA before special items and core earnings per share by a mid-single-digit percentage on a currency-adjusted basis.

Taking into account the exchange rates as at March 31, 2018, reported sales would decline in 2018 overall by a low-single-digit percentage (previously: remain at the prior-year level). In absolute terms, sales would now come in at below €35 billion (previously: around €35 billion). EBITDA before special items would decline by a low-single-digit percentage (previously: match the prior-year level). Core earnings per share would come in at the prior-year level, as previously forecast.

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